USA Employment — Inflation & Unemployment

Overview

This page provides a long-form look at US unemployment and inflation from 2018 through early 2026. The interactive tabs above let you explore the unemployment rate (UNRATE) and the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPIAUCSL) in several views. Below we unpack what these series mean, how they moved over the period, and how they relate to labor market conditions and monetary policy.

The data are published at monthly frequency. UNRATE and CPIAUCSL are two of the most widely watched indicators for the health of the job market and the level of consumer prices, and both played a central role in policy decisions over the sample period—from the pre-pandemic expansion through the COVID-19 shock, the recovery, and the inflation surge that prompted aggressive Fed tightening.

Understanding the Indicators

Before diving into the trends, it helps to be precise about what we are measuring.

UNRATE is the civilian unemployment rate (seasonally adjusted). CPIAUCSL is the CPI with 1982–84 = 100, often used to gauge inflation. Both are key inputs for monetary policy and labor market assessment.

Key Findings and Summary Statistics

The summary panel below shows the date range of the data, the minimum, maximum, and average values for both series, and the number of monthly observations. Use it as a quick reference before reading the narrative sections.

Over the full period, unemployment moved with business cycles and policy: it was low before the pandemic, spiked in 2020, then fell as the economy reopened. CPI trended upward throughout, with a notable acceleration in 2021–2022 that prompted the Fed to raise rates sharply. The following table highlights selected milestones from the data.

Unemployment Over Time

From 2018 into early 2020, the US unemployment rate hovered near multi-decade lows, reflecting a tight labor market. The COVID-19 pandemic and associated shutdowns then produced a historic spike: unemployment rose to double digits in a matter of months as millions of workers were laid off or left the labor force.

As the economy reopened and fiscal and monetary support took effect, unemployment fell quickly. By 2022–2023 it had returned to levels that many economists consider near or below the natural rate. In the most recent data, unemployment remains low by historical standards, though it has ticked up slightly from the post-recovery lows.

CPI and Inflation Over Time

The Consumer Price Index rose gradually in 2018–2019 and into early 2020. During the pandemic, supply chain disruptions, shifts in demand, and later the impact of reopening and stimulus contributed to a sharp acceleration in inflation. CPI growth peaked in 2022, prompting the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates aggressively.

In 2023 and into 2024–2026, inflation cooled from those peaks even as the level of the CPI continued to rise. The chart below shows the level of the index (1982–84 = 100) over the full sample. Year-over-year growth rates would show the acceleration and subsequent moderation more clearly; here we focus on the level to align with the underlying series in the data.

Unemployment and Inflation Together

Plotting unemployment and CPI on the same timeline reveals how the two series moved relative to each other. In 2020, unemployment spiked while CPI growth was still moderate; then, as unemployment fell rapidly, inflation took off. That combination—falling unemployment and rising inflation—posed a challenge for the Fed, which responded with a fast pace of rate hikes.

The inverse relationship between unemployment and inflation in some periods is often discussed in the context of the Phillips curve, which suggests that, all else equal, tighter labor markets can be associated with higher inflation. The 2021–2022 period was complicated by supply shocks and reopening effects, but the dual-axis chart below lets you compare both series directly and form your own view of the relationship over time.

Period-by-Period Narrative

Pre-pandemic (2018–2019)

Unemployment was low and stable, and CPI was rising at a modest pace. Labor markets were tight, and the Fed had been gradually raising rates before pausing and then cutting in 2019 in response to global growth concerns and trade uncertainty.

COVID-19 shock (2020)

The pandemic and lockdowns led to an unprecedented spike in joblessness. Unemployment reached its peak in the sample in 2020. CPI growth was subdued initially as demand collapsed; later in the year, as activity rebounded and supply bottlenecks emerged, inflation began to move up.

Recovery and inflation surge (2021–2022)

Unemployment fell quickly as the economy reopened and fiscal support boosted demand. At the same time, inflation accelerated sharply, driven by supply constraints, strong demand, and energy and food price shocks. The Fed shifted from emergency accommodation to rapid rate increases, and the labor market remained strong even as borrowing costs rose.

Recent (2023–2026)

Unemployment has remained low by historical standards, though with some modest increase from the post-recovery lows. Inflation has cooled from the 2022 peaks while the level of the CPI continues to rise. The Fed has held or adjusted policy in response to incoming data on both employment and prices. The charts above allow you to inspect the latest months in the dataset.

Data and Methodology

The analysis and interactive tool on this page use the following dataset. We acknowledge the original source and recommend citing it when using or republishing the data.

Data source: US Inflation and Unemployment Dataset (2018–2026) on Kaggle (abidhussai512). The series are the unemployment rate (UNRATE) and the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPIAUCSL), ultimately sourced from FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data). The Kaggle dataset provides monthly-frequency data extended to daily in the CSV for continuity; this tool aggregates to monthly for charts and analysis.